All Star Charts Crypto Articles

At All Star Charts Crypto, we've emphasized the value of on-chain data that allows us to peer inside the blockchain to find reliable and actionable signals.

It seems almost every day in this blossoming asset class, there's a new dataset, indicator, or some other avenue to analyze price action with incredibly high resolution.

Alongside the on-chain data that's supplemented our traditional analysis, we're taking an increasing interest in incorporating order flow into our work.

We're beginning to find it provides considerable value in fine-tuning our approach, making for better executions, and helping skew the probabilities of success in our favor.

We'll walk through one of the many ways we use order flow in this post. Today we'll be discussing volume, or more specifically, volume delta.

Yesterday's report, which you can read here, laid the groundwork for today's note. 

To summarize, we're of the strong view that there's little to no edge in pushing directional bets in this tape.

Because Bitcoin's lost all momentum, we anticipate more weeks of ranging and contracting price action that's likely to involve a high concentration of whipsaws.

This is not a market conducive to aggressive moves.

The vast majority of crypto investors are better served by not pressing trades.

However, in today's note, we'll discuss market-neutral trades that can quietly yield results in periods where absolute price trends hold little edge for directional bets.

In last Monday's report, we pointed out a handful of bearish developments but restated our neutral outlook on the crypto market.

We noted that there was demand coming from spot, while futures were still in the process of selling.

This continues to be the key theme to monitor; selling spot no longer appears to be the primary way savvy and large investors are going to cash.

Rather, they're doing it through shorting calendar futures driving down Bitcoin's term structure.

Since then, we've seen Bitcoin lose our risk level of 41,000 and are positioned heavily in cash.

We're anticipating a longer period of sideways price action, and this is a tape conducive neither to trading nor to establishing aggressive long positions.

This is the video recording of our February 18, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The last time we discussed altcoins, we mentioned we were tactically shorting overbought names bouncing into supply while eyeing more intermediate-term long positions.

This approach paid off, with names like Gala $GALA and Sandbox $SAND succumbing to the selling pressure, booking a quick profit.

Moving forward, as we laid out in yesterday's note, the market's in a state of balance, and we have a neutral outlook.

This is the time when we're closely monitoring names showing leadership, waiting patiently for setups to solidify.

This will be a short and sweet note with three long trade ideas.

In last Monday's note, we discussed a variety of data points suggesting Bitcoin was in the beginning phases of carving out a tradable bottom.

We also mentioned that we anticipate a few weeks of sideways price action ahead of further upward price discovery. Since then, we've seen a handful of developments paint a more neutral picture.

Unlike spot prices, futures never flipped to buying and are still in a fairly strong regime of selling via calendar futures.

There's also been a gentle deleveraging of open interest and an increase in defensive positioning, as investors have been withdrawing capital off the back of geopolitical volatility.

Meanwhile, legacy markets continue to act as a headwind. Bitcoin and equity trading correlations remain high, and it's yet to be seen whether Bitcoin can front-run equity weakness, like what took place in October last year.

This all takes place as Bitcoin remains above our risk level of 41,000.

One of the limitations of evaluating spot flows since November is that despite...

This is the video recording of our February 11, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

If you've been involved with crypto, chances are you've encountered a headline like this:

Crypto investors seem to appreciate these statistics. But most likely aren't aware that the mechanism of forced selling can provide an incredible wealth of information.

Believe it or not, we can use this data to manage risk, find future support and resistance zones, and even help piece together a macro directional bias.

First things first, what is a liquidation?

In last week's report, we outlined a handful of bullish developments appearing as we waited for price action to respond.

We discussed the fact that the institutional money that left in October is flowing back, exchanges are seeing modest outflows, and traditional markets are looking prime for a tactical bounce.

Since then, we've seen Bitcoin rally to our inflection point between 41,000 and 42,000.

With momentum turning back in the favor of the bulls, the highest-likelihood scenario looks to be a few weeks of sideways price action ahead of further upside follow-through.

This is the video recording of our February 4, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Picture this.

One of your close friends asks you about technical analysis. What do technicians do? "What even is technical analysis?" they ask.

Your first instinct is to dive down the rabbit hole of charts, indicators, and intermarket analysis. After your rambling, your friend is even more confused than before they asked.

That's the common mistake, one of the primary reasons why technical analysis often gets such a bad rap.

In the same way you wouldn't describe geography as the study of seismometers or biology as the field of microscopes, you'd be selling technical analysis short by arguing it's the study of indicators.

A few weeks ago, we outlined our patient approach in the altcoins.

Our argument was as follows:

We’re approaching this market with a high degree of patience until a higher conviction setup has been formed.

This remains a messy, low-conviction tape to be positioned aggressively long.

Since then, most alts have trended considerably lower, and there's been little reason to be heroic in buying dips.

But, as we discussed in yesterday's note, there are a few bullish data points creeping in that could turn the tide for the alts.

Many names now sit at support, while others are in the process of putting in failed breakdowns sporting bullish momentum divergences.

In simple English, this is a good first stepping stone to carving out tradable bottoms.