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Gold Rush: Miners Join the Party

January 9, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed precious metals printing fresh highs?

Last week, gold posted new multi-month highs. So did silver and platinum, hitting their highest levels since the spring of 2022.

Not a bad start to 2023 for these shiny rocks. And it gets better!

Gold broke out to new all-time highs relative to bonds last week. The yellow metal is not only showing strength on an absolute basis – it’s also outperforming its alternatives.

These are classic bull market characteristics and two critical pieces of evidence suggesting gold is in the early stages of a new structural uptrend.

If gold is on its way to new all-time highs, gold mining stocks will be participating. 

And it just so happens they are…

If gold prices rise, companies that remove gold from the ground and sell it will surely benefit. Simple!

...

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International Hall of Famers (01-06-2023)

January 6, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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Metals Shine as Commodity Indexes Sag

January 6, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Bloomberg commodity index $BCOM is breaking down, approaching fresh 52-week lows.

Somehow Gold and Copper didn’t get the memo. They must be too busy printing new highs.

But when we review other major commodity indexes (including our own equal-weight index of 33 individual contracts), they look poised to roll over.

Check out the triple pane chart of the Bloomberg, CRB, and our equal-weight commodity indexes:

It’s interesting to note the differences between these indexes. The weighting structures vary, as do their support levels. But the CRB index and our equal-weight commodity index challenge their 2022 lows while the BCOM has undercut its respective lows. 

Will the other indexes follow BCOM lower, completing major tops? Or will the Bloomberg index reverse higher, holding above former support?

I don’t know. No one does. But that’s not the key takeaway from this chart. Instead, this chart tells me I...

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Young Aristocrats: 2023 Special Report

January 6, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our annual edition of Young Aristocrats.

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.

These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world.

Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we're turning our attention to the future aristocrats.

In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we're curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend...

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Do US Rates Have it Right?

January 5, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Whether you’re looking across the curve or around the world, interest rates continue to rise.

Benchmark rates in Germany, France, Spain, and Portugal hit fresh multi-year highs last week. Interestingly, the US 10-year yield did not. And neither did the two-, 5-, or 30-year yields.

I’m not claiming US yields have put in a lower high. It’s far too early to assume that. A downside resolution below last month’s pivot lows needs to materialize before making that claim.

Nevertheless, the lack of confirmation from US interest rates is intriguing, especially as European yields turn lower this week.

Check out the triple-pane chart of Developed European 10-year yields (Germany, France, and Spain):

All three broke above their respective Oct. highs, finishing 2022 on a high note. But those breakouts were short-lived as yields are sliding lower this week. 

The lackluster moves from European yields suggest...

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2 to 100 Club

2 to 100 Club (01-04-2023)

January 4, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

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The Time and Place for a DXY Rally

January 3, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I’m not big into seasonality.

I pay attention to it, of course. But it’s not in my top three data points after price. 

Don’t get me wrong, seasonality brings context and enhances awareness of any given market – which should be a priority for any trader or investor.

I have multiple almanacs on my desk, including the Stock Trader’s Almanac by Jeff Hirsch and Christopher Mistal and the Spectra Markets Trader Handbook and Almanac by Brent Donnelly and Justin Ross.

...

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Follow the Flow (01-03-2023)

January 3, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

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The Minor Leaguers (01-03-2023)

January 3, 2023

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

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2022 Trade Ideas

December 31, 2022

Here is a list of trade ideas organized by date, ticker symbol and directional bias. Please make sure you have clicked on the link and read the details surrounding the trade before acting upon any of them. Also, make sure you have checked with your financial advisor and tax accountants to make sure you are suitable to be executing what is discussed on this website. The risk management procedures and targets are detailed for each idea. Please read and review the terms and conditions page before making any trades of your own.