All Star Charts Premium Articles

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

On Wednesday afternoon, the Federal Reserve announced another 75-basis-point rate hike following its September policy meeting. 

Yields across the curve ripped, and Treasury bonds dipped.

What else is new?

An aggressive hiking regime has been the Fed’s modus operandi since March. And it's made clear its intent to stay the course.

But what does the rest of the market think about the rise in rates?

Let’s look at our intermarket ratios to gain some insight.

First, we have a triple-pane chart of regional banks versus REITs, the copper/gold ratio, and the US 10-year yield:

These key intermarket ratios tend to peak and trough with interest rates. Notice all three peaked in 2018.

As rates roll over and growth slows, investors reach for the safety of gold and REITS versus the more economically sensitive copper and regional banks.

...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

This is the video recording of the September 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• What's the Bear Case?
• One of worst starts to year for 60/40 portfolio in history
• The impact of the US Dollar on Stocks
• No lows list peaked 3 months ago
• Best time to buy stocks in the 4 year cycle
• Bearish sentiment persists
• ARKK and Biotech stopped falling in May
• S&P500 stuck below resistance 4100-4200
• European Banks show relative strength
• Midstream Stocks Breaking out - the full list
• Corn, Soybeans and Wheat with huge bases
• Silver bullish divergence vs Gold
• Other Emerging Markets outpacing China
• Small-cap Industrials stocks that are breaking out
• 1-yr yield highest roc in 40 years
• The Flippening Is Real
• List of best trade ideas

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is on cruise control with nothing ahead but an open road.

The few obstacles that stood in its way are falling to the wayside. That’s right – the handful of commodity currencies that have refused to roll over during the past six months are beginning to slip.

Before we get to these fresh breakdowns, let’s set the scene with two currencies that have been anything but resilient – the euro and the British pound.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest Under The Hood columne, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 16, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The big news in commodities this week is gold breaking down to its lowest level since early 2020.

I recently outlined what a downside resolution for the shiny yellow rock could mean for inflation and the entire commodity space.

Spoiler alert: a fresh leg lower from gold doesn’t bode well for raw materials or the prospects of sustained inflation.

Nevertheless, inflation hasn’t gone anywhere, at least not yet. 

As long as that’s the case, we expect commodities to see further upside, albeit not in unison. The broad rally witnessed at the end of 2020 into 2021 is unlikely to be repeated in the near future.

Regardless, stellar buying opportunities will present themselves.

We aren't going to let the bifurcated nature of commodity markets stop us from catching the next explosive rally.

In other words, the supply and demand dynamics for copper don't affect our decision to trade soybeans or wheat.

Instead, let's trade what is in front of us – even as...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our next Live Call will be held on Tuesday September 20th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday night:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Interest rates have resumed their ascent following a brief summer pause. And, in recent weeks, their climb has accelerated.

Aside from lower bond prices, what do higher rates mean for other assets, such as stocks and commodities?

It might seem like a simple question. But its relevance is undeniable given the current market conditions.

We’ve been vocal about the cyclical areas of the market that benefit most from a rising rate environment – think commodities, energy, materials, and banks. We’ve put out plenty of trade ideas in those areas.

But not all risk assets enjoy a tailwind when yields rise.

Higher rates mean downside pressure for long-duration assets in general, not just bonds. This also includes growth stocks!

Check out the chart of the US Treasury Bond ETF $TLT overlaid with the growth-versus-value ratio...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...