The Strazza Letter Articles

One thing I’m looking to do more of here at ASC is share some of the scans we’re running internally each week.

Our roots are in top down technical analysis. We do it better than anyone. And we share a lot of it, but we don’t share enough.

We’re literally running hundreds of ad-hoc scans each week. And we’re going to start giving one away every weekend.

This one is a clear and simple leadership scan, which is why I like it so much. This is the textbook top down approach. It doesn’t get any better.

We start with the best sectors, drill into the best subgroups, pick one, and then find the top stocks.

This week, Industrials stand out as a clear leader—second only to Tech, up nearly 9% in May, and the first sector to complete the V-shaped recovery and retest all-time highs.

Within Industrials, the...

One of the things I love most about bull markets is how they try to include everyone.

Everyone is making money. 

Whether it’s growth stocks or value stocks. US stocks or international stocks. Gold or bitcoin. 

It’s all working and we’re all happy. The parties are better. You get the picture. 

And the reason this is true is because most risk assets participate in bull markets. 

Even the bad ones join the party eventually. 

And of course, we can always find bad stocks that are bucking the trend and falling, but I’m talking about subgroups and thematics. Most areas end up working.

At the end of a sustained bull market, the list of groups that didn’t go up will be very short. 

It’s a hallmark characteristic of the good times....

I have to admit I’ve been thinking a lot about bonds lately. 

Like way more than usual. 

It’s because I think this is a critical time and place for treasuries. 

The 30-year US yield $TYX is backing off after testing its cycle highs. Meanwhile, the popular iShares long-term treasury fund $TLT is rebounding off a big shelf of support. 

If these key levels break— so TLT to the downside and TYX to the upside— we’re talking about major pattern resolutions. 

Major pattern resolutions tend to be followed by significant reaction legs. 

What I’m saying is bonds are at risk of tanking lower if this scenario were to play out. 

And have you noticed how stocks have felt about bond market volatility lately?

I’ve overlaid ARKK with the inverted MOVE index to answer that...

I’m watching the sun sink into the gulf of whatever water from my mobile office. 

We’ve done the drive from Key West to Naples a bunch lately and it’s just lovely. 

No major highways. You take a road from the middle of the ocean to another through the middle of the Everglades. 

It is cruising, defined. Florida style. 

You can see both sharks and gators right out your window along the way. 

Anyway, I’ve found that I really enjoy reading and writing from the car. It frees me from my desk-brain. 

I also really enjoy uncorrelated exposure. It frees me from my overweight risk-on equity positioning.

And I don’t mean defensive exposure. 

I’m talking about exposure to things that can move fast and generate alpha in bull cycles but don’t necessarily move with the broader US...

For traders, being early is just as bad as being wrong. 

And I’ve been early on energy. There’s no doubt. 

We’ve taken some shots with call options and they haven’t worked. 

But I’m also building and increasing long-term positions in the traditional oil & gas space. Nothing fancy. I’m talking about the largest integrated players around the globe. 

Exxon, Chevron, Canadian Natural, Petrobras… I’m leaning into the big boys in my long-term account. How about those dividend yields?

And the data keeps telling me I’m on the right track. 

Pull up a price chart and tell me I’m crazy. Because you’d be right. 

Energy bulls are trying to catch a falling knife right now. That’s a top in crude for the time being…

However, my technical upbringing has me focused on other things. I’m a...

Stocks gave some back this week, but when I look beneath the surface, I really like what I see from market internals.

Quantum stocks are red hot again. 

Space & exploration names are perking up. 

The new nuclears are having a monster week. 

Heavily shorted stocks are squeezing.

And let’s not forget the cryptos. How about those new highs in Bitcoin!?

Speculative growth and technology continue to lead and have been doing it consistently since the April lows.

Participation is broadening, and a growing list of risk-on stocks are assuming new leadership roles.

It’s all very bullish, and we want to stay overweight offense as long as this is the environment.

So today, we updated our Speculative Growth Leadership Scan that we shared ...

I’ve been on an absolute tear this year. 

With the Breakout Multiplier strategy, I’ve had at least one 10X winner each and every month.

I’ve been looking through our recent trades and journaling on them, which is something I do every couple of weeks. 

I thought I’d share my findings and review how these outlier trades played out. Let’s start from the beginning.

I started the year with one of our favorite stocks—$HIMS.

Price was coiling, momentum was building, and I pounced at the end of January.

I bought the Mar 21st $40 calls. They doubled in 8 days and eventually ran for +1727%.

I don’t know much about Peru, outside of the fact that they make some great ceviche.

But I’ve been thinking about the country a lot today.

MSCI Peru $EPU was on a short list of international ETFs that made new highs today.

At first, I was puzzled by this. It was a sea of red out there. Everything got hit. Not just in the US, but across the globe. 

Then I looked at the funds holdings and realized how it happened. EPU is basically a big basket of metals stocks. 50% of the fund is invested in materials. 

Here it is resolving higher from a multi-year base:

Gold and silver miners were the only stocks that worked today. Both of the shiny metals look fantastic, and I think silver is just breaking out now. 

EPU’s exposure to...

I’m loading up on Silver for a catch-up move to Gold.

And I already know what you’re thinking. Investors have been betting on this idea since last year… and it hasn’t worked one bit.

This isn’t some sort of original investment thought I’m having. These two move together. Everyone knows that. 

But I will tell you what all those investors who showed up too soon were missing…

Animal spirits. 

They just weren’t there. But that’s changing.

In other words, silver is a lot more about speculation, and a lot less of a safe haven. It’s the risk-on version of gold.

It has been stuck in a sideways range for the trailing 12-months while gold has been ripping higher in a near-vertical line. Here’s a performance chart:

What is constructive about this is that it’s been consolidating at...

I’m liking energy more and more with each passing day.

And the bull thesis couldn’t be simpler.

It’s a raging bull market for stocks around the world. It’s being led by offense. 

Internals continue to improve. 

And like any bull cycle, as time passes and the market grinds higher, it drags a growing list of non-performers higher with it.

Some call it rotation, but it’s really just a broadening of participation over longer timeframes. 

What I mean is that more groups join the party as the bull market progresses. The ones that had previously not been working, start working. We see it every time.

In bull markets, the laggards catch up to the leaders. And not vice versa.

And it’s happening now, isn’t it?

Look at international markets. Even the worst-performing regions, like Southeast Asia and South America, are now working. They’re actually outperforming in the short-term.

And in the US, look at old laggards like small-caps, speculative growth, and transports. They are working too,...

We’re back from New Orleans, so I’m doing a lot of catching up this weekend.

When I was plowing through charts yesterday, I realized two appeal to me a lot more than the rest right now.

One of the things I always do at Portfolio Accelerator is share my best ideas for the coming months and quarters.

I’ll share some tactical opportunities and discuss the themes and areas of the market I’m interested in trading.

But I’ll also zoom out and talk about some of the fresh new uptrends I’m buying with a longer timeframe in mind.

I’ve been an Asia bull for some time now. China has already been the best idea at past conferences. BABA, BIDU, and TCEHY are currently conviction longs for this theme. 

Southeast Asia’s online retail giant, Sea Ltd $SE is another one I shared with our clients at one of last year’s events. It’s been a top international stock. It’s one of my largest long-term holdings...

The US Dollar Index $DXY continues to sit near the top of our macro checklist.

It’s been one of the more important tells of the cycle, not just for currencies—but for equities, commodities, and global risk assets.

Traditionally, the dollar moves opposite to US stocks. But as technicians, we know better than to marry intermarket correlations. These relationships ebb and flow, strengthen, weaken, invert, and sometimes go completely quiet. That’s normal.

Late last year, a big shift took place as stocks began to...