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The Most Bears Since 2023

February 8, 2025

It's hard to imagine what it is that these investors are all so bearish about.

I mean, we're in the middle of a bull market, where we know historically it pays way better own stocks than to be selling them. We know. We have the data.

And yet, accordingly to the latest AAII survey, more individual investors are bearish over the next 6 months than at any point since November of 2023.

Here's what stocks have done since then:

 

These are historic returns that have rarely been seen throughout stock market history. It's been practically straight up. 

The S&P500 is up almost 40%, while the Nasdaq100 is up over 45%. Financials and Communications are each up over 50%.Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Technology are also major leaders during this period.

You see, stocks don't go up or down in price based on "fundamentals". Prices move based on positioning. And when individual investors are all bullish, it's probably a good time to be selling.

More importantly, and definitely more actionable, is when individual investors are bearish. That's historically a great time to be buying very aggressively.

These are the...

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3 Doubles Today in our China Trades

February 7, 2025

Chinese stocks are on the move.

These Breakout Multiplier trades are all popping off one by one. 3 of them doubled today.

The Chinese Internet Index closed at its highest levels since mid-October, well before the Trump landslide victory (that was supposed to be the end of Chinese stocks).

It's actually been the exact opposite.

In fact, look Chinese Internet stocks relative to the U.S. Internet Index. The new lows could not hold, and now the face-ripper is here:

 

The rotation is real, and this is a perfectly normal characteristic of a bull market, which we are very much in.

There's a time and a place for everything. Buying China has not been a good idea for a long time. So it should be no surprise that the short interest in China is so high.

Those shorts have overstayed their welcome and now it's time for us to profit from their demise. The short squeeze you...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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(Commodities Weekly) February is a Great Month for Commodities: Here's What We're Buying 📊🧑‍🌾

February 7, 2025

Commodities are catching a serious bid right now.

Coffee futures have resolved a nearly 50-year base, printing fresh all-time highs.

Base and industrial metals keep screaming higher as the Chinese economy strengthens. 

This is all happening at a time when commodities are supposed to be strong.

February is one of the best months of the year for commodities: 

As you can see, February has historically been an excellent month for owning commodities. The only better month is April, and the difference is marginal.

Will this be another strong February? We think so!

We told you we were buying fertilizer stocks a few weeks ago. ...

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The Yield Curve Moves First—Commodities Follow

February 7, 2025

If you want to understand where commodity prices are headed, look at the yield curve.

Every major commodity bull market has been preceded by a steepening yield curve—every single one.

📈 When the yield curve bottoms and starts steepening, commodities follow.
 

 

Look at the last cycle:

  • The commodity index bottomed when the yield curve hit its lowest point.
  • When the yield curve flipped positive for the first time since 2022commodities started trending higher.

It’s not magic—it’s liquidity and capital flows. When short-term rates fall relative to long-term rates, the market starts pricing in higher growth and inflation expectations, and commodities are the first to respond.

This is exactly why we’re positioned the way we are. Commodities don’t move in isolation—...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/7/25

February 7, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in XRT.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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The Hall of Famers (02-07-2025)

February 7, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

All Star Options

When the World is Against You

February 6, 2025

Before I get to today's Options Jam Session, I want to talk about profiting from bearish moves.

Short answer: It's a hell of a lot harder than it looks.

Few people (with the exception of traders holding short positions) hate it when stocks go up. It is human nature to expect stocks to go up. When stocks are going up, everything is "normal." There's no panic. There are no investor lawsuits. There are no board room freak-outs. Everyone is making money, everyone is happy. Carry on.

But when stocks are going down, people get mad. They look for someone to blame. Big shareholders and institutions start looking for malfeasance and an angle to sue the company for fraud. Star employees get frustrated and leave for greener pastures. Customers lose confidence in the company and start exploring other options. Borrowing costs get more expensive. It gets harder to raise capital in the public markets.

All kinds of bad things happen when stocks go down. So companies deploy all kinds of weapons (some legal, some questionable) to try to stop the stock from going down. They issue buybacks. They issue bullish press releases. The executives go on TV and...

Options Paid to Play

[Options P2P] Daily Digest 2/6/25

February 6, 2025

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

  1. New position in EEM.
  2. No adjustments are needed today.
  3. No exits since the last report.
  4. Current status of open campaigns.
  5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

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Junior Hall of Famers (02-06-2025)

February 6, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...