We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
Our Macro list experienced widespread weakness this week as 81% of assets closed lower with a median return of -1.29%.
The VIX index was the big winner, closing out the week with more than a 27% gain and registering fresh 13-week highs in the process.
The biggest loser this week was Lumber, falling -7.13%
This week, we saw a 6% drop in the percentage of assets on our list that are within 5% of their 52-week highs (...
Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Stocks Or Bonds?
When the market provides us mixed signals, we dive beneath the surface to find more clues about the current environment. Here's the S&P 500 relative to U.S. Treasury Bonds, with the Russell 2000 overlaid. Note the similarity between them during the past year. When comparing stocks vs bonds it tells a story of not just where the alpha is but also how market participants are behaving. Similar to strength from small-caps, the ratio is a great gauge of risk appetite. Hence, why they look the same.
SPY/TLT tried to break out this week, but couldn’t quite get it done. As long as these charts continue to be trapped in their sideways ranges, expect more messy action for equities and risk assets in general. But, if and when we get upward resolutions, be ready for a more risk-on environment.
Instead, our focus has been on expanding global breadth. We believe the burgeoning participation in international markets is constructive for US markets, specifically for cyclical areas.
But are we beginning to see any signs of breadth expansion domestically?
In today’s post, we'll switch gears and turn our attention stateside to address participation among US stocks.
Let’s dive in!
Here’s a look down the cap scale at all three S&P indexes, from large to small:
There's been literally no material move in the number of new...
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley
Industrial metals have been one of the strongest subgroups within the commodity complex over the trailing year.
The parabolic advance in Steel futures off last year’s lows is an excellent illustration of this.
But lately, we see more and more commodities shift toward sideways trends in the intermediate-term. And lots of them are doing so trapped beneath overhead supply.
A quick glance at charts like crude oil or copper tells this story well -- the last four months have been a chop fest for most.
Despite an overall trendless market, we’ve seen pockets of strength from a diverse array of contracts. Steel isn’t the only one. In recent months, we’ve covered breakouts in Coffee, Sugar,...
Despite government officials trying to explain it away, inflation is running at its highest levels in years or (in the case of producer prices) decades. For now, however, the bond market shows little evidence of concern. After pulling back from 1.75% to 1.15%, the yield on the 10-year T-Note has risen in recent weeks but remains below 1.40%. It has bumped up against that level but has not been able to get through it. German yields have moved higher recently and seem to be giving US yields a green light to break out. Resiliency from Financials even as yields were retreating in Q2 and Q3 also argue for an upside resolution here. The high P/E, speculative growth sectors of the market ran out of steam when yields moved higher earlier this year and they could be vulnerable again if yields make a sustained move to the upside from here.
The big indexes offered us a little pullback this week which has been helping us identify the true standouts -- the stocks that are holding up best in a down tape. We're all about relative strength at All Star Charts as it is one of the most reliable indicators for us. And true leaders really identify themselves when they are swimming against the current while markets are sliding.
So on days and weeks like this, we're paying very close attention to the strongest sectors and keying in on the strongest stocks to see how they react.
Today, one those names is in the Capital Markets space where we're seen tremendous strength this year.