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All Star Charts Crypto

It's A Bull Market, You Know...

September 6, 2021

Things are looking pretty damn good right now.

Bitcoin's got a 50 handle.

The alts are pushing to new highs.

And on-chain behavior continues to suggest accumulation on the part of long-term investors.

The bottom line is that if Bitcoin is in the 50,000's, we need to be aggressively long crypto.

And on the other side of things, alts have certainly had a good run in the last month: Solana, Cardano, Terra, Axie Infinity all come to mind...

[PLUS] Weekly Momentum Report & Takeaways

September 6, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the context of the big picture and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:
  • Our macro universe performance was positive across the board again this week, as 77% of our list closed higher with a median return of 0.65%.
  • The biggest winner of the week was Lumber $LB, which gained 12.78% as it continues to rebound off a key level of support.
  • Meanwhile, the week's worst performer was the Treasury Inflation-Protected Bond ETF $TIP, which fell by -1.05%.
  • We saw strength among US Large-Cap indices again...

[PLUS] Weekly Top 10 Report

September 6, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 report was just published. In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

It’s Bear Hunting Season

In our monthly candlestick review, the primary theme was the long list of all-time highs. That’s never bearish. But when we looked toward the weaker areas, despite lagging behind, they’re all holding critical levels of support. When the bears can’t drag down even the worst areas, that’s information. Precious metals, energy, or in this case, airlines whipsawed below support, only for bulls to come out and reclaim control.

As illustrated here, we got about as strong of follow-through as the bulls could have wished for. Again, the fact that so many of the weakest areas just won’t break down is incredibly constructive. If bears can’t even take out airline stocks, how can they ever grab a hold of the broader market? You have to start somewhere, and right now they’re moving backward.

While it’s still too soon to draw this conclusion with enough conviction, we think that these whipsaw moves could very...

Worry About Yourself

September 4, 2021

Somewhere along the way I think people forgot that we're only in the market to make money.

This is a very selfish endeavor.

Who cares what other people are doing with their investments?

Why should it matter to me that someone else may or may not be trading recklessly in the NFT space?

That's their problem.

It's Bear Hunting Season

September 3, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Thanks to everyone who participated in last week’s mystery chart.

We questioned whether it was a rounding top reversal pattern – in which case we’d be looking for a breakdown.

Or, if it was actually a failed breakdown - and we all know what tends to follow those patterns…

The responses we received were mixed. But there were plenty of bulls who wanted to be long against the former lows and bet on a swift reaction higher.

That’s pretty much the camp we were in too. We recently wrote about all of the whipsaw action we’ve been witnessing.

We said the next critical piece of information we’d be looking for was whether or not these patterns would see some real follow-through and confirmation.

Fast forward a week or so, and we definitely have our answer.

So let’s talk about it, and more importantly, what it means for risk assets.

All Star Charts Premium

Commodities Weekly: Uranium Reacts Higher

September 3, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

In today’s Commodity Report, we zoomed out to our monthly charts to reconnect with the primary trend. This exercise really allows us to tune out the noise on the weekly and daily charts.

As we were reviewing our charts, there was one recurring theme that kept popping up...

Pullbacks and retests.

The CRB Index retested its breakout zone near the 2018 highs ~206. 

Crude oil broke back below a 13-year downtrend line only to reclaim it in recent sessions. 

Iron ore fell right back to check in on its 2013 highs. 

And even palladium, the one bright spot in the precious metals space, pulled back to a six-year trendline. 

But guess what? Just like we’ve recently seen in many of the weakest areas in other asset classes, buyers dug in at these key levels.  

Of all these retests, one that stood out most was Uranium. 

Let’s take a look.

Here’s the monthly candlestick chart of the Uranium ETF $URA:...

[Options] Monthly Positions Review - September

September 3, 2021

Once again this month, I’m going to share info on positions that were closed in the month of August. As a reminder, our exit plans are always laid out ahead of time in each trade idea we publish. In every case, the exits mentioned below were all in accordance with the plans as laid out.

As we head towards September expiration, we have three open positions remaining with expiring September options that need our attention. Most of our delta-neutral premium-selling plays worked out in August, which makes sense considering the slow markets we just endured. Let's dive in.

Positions with September options that need monitoring: