In a recent post on Chinese Internet stocks, the team laid out the bullish case for why many of these names look set up to run. Since publishing this post, many of the names discussed have indeed begun breaking out higher.
And one of the names with a pretty impressive base is looking like it's about ready to join it's friends.
Hard to believe some low volatility setups are appearing all over the place, but that is the market we are in. The "bull market" in stocks continues higher, seemingly unabated. Who am I to fight it?
And where else should we play but in names that continue to benefit from the "work-from-home" and social distancing mindshift that is happening on a global scale? Like Social Media.
I like to keep a few delta neutral trades active in the portfolio at all times (if I can). It's a good diversifier and also benefits from sleepy or sideways markets that tend to not help any of my directional trades.
So I regularly scan my list of the most active optionable ETFs to pick out the ones with the highest implied volatility and charts that look like the potential for sideways action setting up (ideally). And once again, for the 3rd month in a row, The utilities sector is standing out for me.
The last two strangles worked out. This time, we're gonna do a slightly different twist.
Last week, the guys published a bullish piece on Chinese internet stocks. Since then, a bunch of them have already taken off and I don't feel like chasing here. However, one name that wasn't mentioned is setting up for a potential "catch up" trade and the time feels right to jump in.
As June gets under way, it’s time to review positions with June options that remain open (haven’t already hit profit targets or been stopped out).
Most trades I put on for All Star Options tend to have a minimum duration of 30 days (short premium plays) and often as long as 6-8 months (for long premium plays). As options approach expiration, greeks like theta and gamma start to become my enemy and whipsaw my P/L. Therefore, as options and spreads get into the expiration month, my best practice is to put each position on notice — it’s time to take action.
In the latest All Star Charts Monthly Conference Call, JC laid out a number of bullish trades. In the week or so since that call, a number of the stocks mentioned have since pulled back. Does that mean the trades are dead?
Not necessarily.
Nothing goes up in a straight line. And if you're a believer that our current pullback is just a result of sector rotation and a reload for a later resumption higher, then you've got to be a lover (as I am) of opportunities to enter the strongest stocks as they pause and/or pull back a bit.
With that in mind, we're putting a trade on in a Pharma stock that has the wind in it's sails.
Don't fight the tape. The markets are moving higher, whether we agree with it or not.
That said, we want to be long the strongest stocks. This is trendfollowing 101.
Last week, Steve Strazza put up a bunch of ideas in semiconductors which have been leading the way. Many are now breaking out so we're going to put on an options trade to take a jump into this trend.
Ok, I have to be honest here. I'm not incredibly bullish at these prices. As much as I try to divorce myself from the news cycle and the fundamentals, its hard to think NOW is the time to get long.
That said, only price pays, and charts and declining volatility in many stocks is telling different stories.
The beautiful thing is I can express bullish trades with options and clearly define my risk. Here's one that looks like a good risk reward:
In March, the up move and subsequent retracement in Bonds was breathtaking and had the world's attention.
In April, Bonds spent most of the month "normalizing," at a newer, higher level.
Here in May, we're starting to see signs that another move to the upside is materializing. Here's a quote from JC in a recent email to All Star Chart subscribers:
If you're looking for an uptrend, it's in the bond market, NOT the stock market.
...the technical setup in Treasuries looks much better than it does for Stocks right now, over both long and short-term timeframes. TLT is trading just a few percent off all-time highs as price just broke above a confluence of resistance.
And here's the chart of relative strength between $TLT and $SPY that adds further evidence of a resumption of trend for TLT:
In a recent blog post, JC highlighted some bullish stocks that he can simply no longer ignore. Regardless of whether or not we feel the upside may be close to exhausting itself in the broader markets, there are some setups that are screaming for attention.