All Star Charts Crypto Articles

In Monday’s letter, we made the case that the market has successfully resolved higher from the post-ETF consolidation. This came after a number of data sets suggested we had seen a reset in the consensus bullish sentiment and positioning in the lead-up to the ETF approval. With the market pressing higher, we want to position ourselves to take advantage of this reaccelerating trend.

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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Bitcoin continues to rally higher, hitting 50,000 for the first time since March 2022.

New York expands fraud case against DCG to $3B.

Binance is losing dominance against other crypto venues, with spot volume dominance falling from 60% to 40% throughout 2023. This has been accelerated with CME open interest overtaking Binance in recent months.

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Here is Bitcoin dominance YTD; this is calculated by dividing Bitcoin's market capitalization by the total market capitalization of the asset class. As Bitcoin market-cap dominance rises, it suggests that Bitcoin is outperforming most of the asset class.

Following the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETFs, Bitcoin dominance sharply fell but has now quickly recovered as crypto markets have stair-stepped higher. This points to Bitcoin's outperformance relative to smaller market-cap altcoins.

This is normal market conditions, where...

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Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Bitcoin has erased its post-ETF losses, with prices hitting 48,000.

The greatest percentage of cryptocurrencies made new highs since the short-term market top in December last year.

Bitcoin spot ETFs have surpassed 200,000 BTC in AUM within their first month of trading.

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Here is a daily price chart of Bitcoin making 52-week closing highs. A number of data points pointed to a reset in the consensus bullish positioning and sentiment that had become dominant over the recent months. Now, it appears the 40,000s have become a new floor in this bull market.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

We want to see Bitcoin hold 46,000 on the upside, but should we see mean reversion manifest from this recent move, we’d anticipate the 40,000s to provide support on the downside.

We’re closely monitoring Bitcoin dominance. As it stands,...

In last week’s letter, we argued that a once-crowded bullish sentiment had cooled down in a bull market reset. We also put forward the case that crypto markets were at an inflection point between capitulation or reacceleration. Over the last week, we’ve seen Bitcoin sharply rally to the high 40,000s, indicating that this period of consolidation is ending with an upward resolution.

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Bitcoin rallies into the 46,000, erasing its post-ETF gains.

Bitcoin dominance has climbed on this recent rally, pointing to Bitcoin’s leadership in this move.
 

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The Russell 2000 index $IWM is an index representing small-cap stocks in the United States. In recent months, the index has been coiling in a series of higher lows and lower highs. These contractions in volatility often proceed with directional moves. The price action in IWM is getting tight, pointing to a resolution in either direction.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

With Bitcoin resolving higher from the upper end of this trading range, the bias is higher for crypto markets over the near-term.

The key level to watch on the downside for Bitcoin is 44,500.

We’re closely monitoring whether this momentum in Bitcoin dominance $BTC.D continues, pointing to Bitcoin leadership....

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WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

After a positive day in the equity markets, Bitcoin and crypto prices have seen a strong rally.

Bitcoin dominance climbed on this recent move, pointing to further leadership out of Bitcoin relative to altcoins.

The talk of the town is Farcaster, a new platform for building decentralised social media applications.
 

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Here is Bitcoin since December of last year. The new highs list in crypto peaked two-months ago, and the price action since then has been choppy. The trading range to watch here is a zone between 45,000 and 40,000. With Bitcoin at the upper end of its range, we’re closely monitoring how prices fare over the coming days.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

All eyes are on 45,000. If Bitcoin can decisively breakout here, it could spell the end to this brief two-...

As crypto markets continue to churn sideways following the Bitcoin spot ETF approvals, positioning data suggests a once-crowded consensus bullish sentiment has cooled down. This comes within the context of Bitcoin retesting its long-term resistance level near 46,000. It’s within these periods that excessive positioning and sentiment calms down and allows the market to recalibrate for its next move.

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range, advancing the messy price action over the last few months.

February is a seasonally strong month for crypto, with Bitcoin closing higher 80% over the last decade.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have added over 150,000 BTC under their AUM despite outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC.

$900M tokens are to be unlocked in February across major crypto projects.
 

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We’re always on the scout for leadership, irrespective of the market environment. With most crypto assets selling off following the ETF approvals, there have been a small number of outliers. Chainlink $LINK is one that comes to mind after continuing to work higher, while the price action in the majors has been rather lackluster.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

As we continue to say, we’re monitoring this trading range in Bitcoin. If prices remain stuck between 40,000 and 45,000, we’re anticipating more messy...

Good morning, Welcome to your daily crypto clarity

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

The messy price action in cryptocurrencies continues as several bearish price divergences creep up in equity markets.

Positioning and sentiment within crypto markets have cooled off as price action 

Blackrock’s Bitcoin ETF $IBIT has experienced its first day of higher volumes than Grayscale’s $GBTC product.

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As crypto prices continue to churn sideways, interest in the spot market has dwindled. Bitcoin’s spot volumes have declined to their pre-ETF hype levels. Combined with other confirming indicators, both in the derivatives markets and on-chain, it paints a picture where the consensus bullish sentiment has cooled off in a healthy fashion.

WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR

We’re still continuing to monitor this trading range in Bitcoin. If prices remain stuck between 40,000 and 45,000, we’re anticipating more messy price action in the short-term.

What can we say?

Bitcoin's absorbing overhead supply.

Our first target was 25,000, and it got hit.

Now we wait.

It's vital to not let the day-to-day price action drive our execution. It's driven by nothing but emotion, and it does more harm to investors than good.

We all know this. But it can be difficult to step back when necessary.

Objectively speaking, one of the many elements that differentiate great investors from mediocre ones is the ability to sit out of the market when there are no high-conviction opportunities.

One of our simple workarounds to this constant desire to be positioned is to set our invalidations and targets prior to putting money on the line.

People, you know how much we talk about relative strength in these parts.

No matter the attention we give it, we always underestimate its efficacy in financial markets. We talked all about this last week.

When it comes to leadership in this market, it's impossible to ignore Lido DAO $LDO.

Last week, most crypto markets saw moderate selling pressure following retests of critical levels of resistance.

At the same time, momentum is diverging in a bearish fashion, with our indicators putting in lower highs on this most recent high in price action.

Further, equity markets have begun to feel the pressure after selling off on a retest of resistance levels.

We'd previously noted that Bitcoin and equity indices had briefly decoupled on short time frames, pointing to resiliency on the part of crypto markets.

Last week, we saw this correlation return, with Bitcoin being dragged lower by selling pressure in risk markets generally.