All Star Charts Crypto Articles

Make no mistake: Volatility is around the corner.

While price action is trending in nature, volatility mean-reverts. Periods of low volatility precede volatility expansions and vice versa.

So, where do we find ourselves today?

Bitcoin's price stability is at its third-highest level in the last five years.

Have you noticed?

Crypto volatility has completely died off. You'd probably get more juice trading the equity indices than shitcoins these days.

These extremes in volatility -- or lack thereof -- don't last long.

So, we're placing a high likelihood that Bitcoin will make a decisive move in the coming weeks.

And how are we looking to profit from this upcoming move?

This is the video recording of our December 30, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This market's been so easy, right?

You literally had to do nothing, and you've outperformed some of the most sophisticated crypto trading firms on the planet.

By loss realization and institutional contagion, this is the single worst crypto bear market in history.

So, if you're still here with a few dollars to your name, take solace in the fact that you've done a better job at risk management than some of the most intelligent players in the space.

For us, our process has been incredibly simple.

The trend has been down, and we haven't wanted to buy rallies until some long-term bullish shape has been put in.

In recent months, we've been incredibly persistent with our cautious approach while most coins are below their June lows.

Take our equally weighted altcoin index. There's nothing to be done here:

You can pretend it's not that way. You can mold outdated strategies that worked in bullish environments to this current market.

Go ahead, try. Swing at every random breakout or anomalous rally in a bear...

This is the video recording of our December 23, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

There's no denying it.

The US dollar has been an incredible reflection of financial conditions this year. By extension, the correlations between the dollar and risk assets have held firm.

Equities and crypto were under pressure whenever the US dollar trended higher in 2022.

And when the dollar was correcting, equities and crypto were trending higher.

We don't need to overcomplicate this.

The strategy was simple: long Coinbase $COIN above the May lows while cutting our losses below there.

And, lo and behold, it took out those pivot lows. Like any responsible trader using good risk-management practices, we took the loss on the chin and got out of the position.

We were either plain wrong or got the timing off on the trade, so we stuck to our plan and obeyed the price action. We thought the stock was good for a bounce.

But, clearly, COIN had other ideas.

What a sloppy tape.

Don't let these drawdowns fool you; there is nothing stopping this market from getting worse. Over the last week, we've seen even more downside participation manifest, with many coins taking out their most recent November pivot lows.

It's just terrible.

In our Dec. 5 note, Hitting Resistance, we argued the case for continued caution.

With the S&P 500 $SPX testing its channel resistance, the US Dollar Index $DXY sitting on long-term support, and the correlations to legacy markets getting tighter, there was no conviction to be had in long positions.

In recent weeks, we've seen risk-off action persist, with the S&P closing the last two weeks down more than 5%. Further, altcoins have slumped, with many taking out their November lows.

This remains an incredibly sloppy tape, where high cash positions and patience provide the trading edge.

This is the video recording of our December 16, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

There's no denying we've been on the sidelines for the longest time.

Equity markets have stalled at logical resistance zones, while the greenback looks primed to experience a mean-reversion rally. At the same time, Bitcoin $BTC, Ethereum $ETH, and most altcoins are either below their June lows or messy at best.

It's no surprise crypto stocks continue to slide and now trade at year-to-date lows.

What a tragic sector...

Have you heard the news?

Binance is the latest FTX!

Seriously, have you seen all the red flags?

It's insolvent, bro.

Just trust me, bro.

Alright, in all seriousness, there's been a fair amount of rumors surrounding Binance's solvency this week. This narrative originated from Binance's ambiguous proof-of-reserves and internal audits.

Following these questions, Binance saw a net outflow of $1.3B over the last few days, with many prominent trading firms withdrawing nine-figure amounts.

And Binance's public image has been under fire, with the company's official Twitter account leaking a private chat log featuring a crypto trader with over 280,000 followers.

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If I've learned anything about being involved with crypto, it's to verify, not trust.

It doesn't matter what CZ or Binance says. Everybody lies.

Follow the money: It's the only truth in all this noise. It's why we put a premium on price action. It's the only fact that matters.

Personally, I don't have any of my Bitcoin on exchanges. I don't trust them. If it's not your keys, it's not your crypto.

Over the last few months, I've started taking my fitness and my health more seriously.

In my first fourth months of strength training, I packed on 30 pounds and added close to 100 pounds on my squat and deadlift. I started out at a tiny frame for my height, so my progress has been no surprise.

While I've been growing at this rate, I've needed to prioritize my recovery. That meant eating tons of food, getting plenty of sleep, and only training three days a week.

It isn't rocket science.

In fact, it's the very physiology of training: stress, recovery, and adaption.

Without sufficient recovery, there is no growth.

Whether or not you're on a fitness journey, I think we can all relate to the pleasure of a weekend recovery. These two precious days allow us to review the events of the prior week while planning ahead for the days to come.

Our Monday crypto letter is a manifestation of this recovery process. It's our weekly "state of the market" that documents how we're approaching crypto as a collective.

I certainly get a ton of value from putting my thoughts down on paper.

Not only does it allow me to coherently structure...