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Alfonso’s Daily Note,
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Speculative Growth Is Heating Up

May 4, 2025

The stock market just closed higher for 9 straight sessions.

We’re seeing a textbook V-shaped recovery unfold, especially with major indexes and sectors reclaiming key levels and repairing the damage from last month’s selloff.

When we look under the surface, the more speculative, high-beta areas of the market are starting to wake up and look ready to catch higher.

We call that risk appetite. And that’s exactly what our custom speculative growth index was designed to track. 

 

After a sharp pullback, the riskiest stocks in the market are bouncing right where they should.

Former resistance has turned into support. It’s the polarity principle at its finest. 

...
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177K Reasons the Fed Can Wait

May 4, 2025

The jobs report came in just strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines.

Since last month, the U.S. economy added 177,000 new jobs to Nonfarm Payrolls. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, and wages showed minimal growth. 

Together, that combination gave the bond market a clear signal: the economy is stable enough for the Fed to stay patient, and traders adjusted their rate cut expectations accordingly.

 

And the market reacted quickly. Yields on short-term bonds jumped, with the 2-year leading the move higher. The reason was simple: traders no longer expect the Fed to cut rates in June. Now, they’re betting on July.

Goldman and Barclays just said the quiet part out loud: the Fed doesn’t need to move yet.

So bond prices fell, especially on the short end of the curve. Long bonds declined too, but not as much. That’s a textbook bear flattener: when short-term rates rise faster than long-term ones.

...

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Where did all the Bulls go?

May 3, 2025

Stocks keep going up, but investors are more scared than ever.

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, more than half of individuals are bearish equities over the next 6 months. This has been the case now for 10 consecutive weeks.

This has never happened ever in the history of the survey, which dates back to the 1980s. It didn't happen during the great financial crisis, or the dot-com bubble, or even Covid.

But it's happening now. During a bull market.

Stocks are going up, but investors are scared to death.

Did you see the Barron's cover this morning?

Barron's has been polling big money managers for nearly 30 years. According to their latest poll, Money Managers are the most bearish ever:

 

Meanwhile, stocks keep going up.

The Technology Index was actually positive for the month of April, contrary to popular belief.

Tech was even the biggest winner!

Look at the S&P500 Technology Index bouncing off support, from former resistance at the prior cycle highs:

 

And overseas, the strength keeps coming.

The German DAX just closed the week at its highest levels in history.

...

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(Commodities Weekly) Who Let The Cows Out? 🐂

May 2, 2025

After a decade of going nowhere, livestock futures are showing signs of life.

While other commodities have recently stolen the spotlight, the livestock space has quietly been forming some of the most powerful bases in the commodities market.

Now we’re seeing breakouts across the board - from Live Cattle to Feeder Cattle, and potentially Lean Hogs next.

Let’s walk through the setup...

Our ASC Livestock Index has broken out above a major shelf of resistance 📈 

This equal-weight basket of Live Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Lean Hogs spent over a decade carving out a massive base, testing the 2014 highs multiple times before finally clearing the level.

That’s the principle of polarity in action: what was once resistance is now support.

With bulls back in control, we’re targeting the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 221. That's almost 25% more upside from the current price!

It’s time to stop fading strength and start riding the uptrend in livestock.

Is it time for Lean Hogs to catch up? 🐷 

Lean Hogs futures are lagging, but maybe not for long.

Prices are pushing against a major downtrend line...

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The Hall of Famers (05-02-2025)

May 2, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

 

*Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month.

Then, we...

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The Strazza Letter

Searching for Cyber Leaders

May 2, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza

The evidence is becoming clearer and clearer by the day…

It’s time to be overweight US tech stocks again.

But, this can mean a lot of things.

For me, Amazon and Tesla are “tech.” The big communications stocks are definitely “tech.”

There is some “tech” sprinkled into just about every sector, you just have to find it.

As a general rule, if it trades like a tech stock, it’s probably a tech stock.

Anyways, these are the stocks I’m on the hunt for these days. 

I’m buying speculative growth names like AST SpaceMobile and Rigetti Computing.

I’m buying bitcoin and crypto-related plays like MicroStrategy and Mara.

I’m buying biotech stocks like Rythm and Soleno.

...
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Junior Hall of Famers (05-01-2025)

May 1, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We...

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The Strazza Letter

Scanning For Strength

May 1, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza

April will go down as one of the most volatile months in stock market history.

At the lows a few weeks ago, the S&P 500 was in a 20% drawdown. Fast forward to today, and after finding support at the prior cycle highs, the index has already rallied 17% off the bottom.

They call it a fast market. There's no doubt about that.

But more importantly, it's starting to feel like a bull market again.

The major averages reclaimed their VWAPs from the all-time highs earlier this week, and now we're seeing bullish follow-through.

As long as these moves stick, it's looking more and more like a V-shaped recovery out here. And that means it's time to get more aggressive. 

Throughout this correction and subsequent...

2 to 100 Club,
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2 to 100 Club (04-30-2025)

April 30, 2025

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

All Star Charts Gold Rush,
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Currency Report: From The Halls of Montezuma

April 29, 2025

The Mexican peso is the “blue-chip” emerging market currency. It’s long been a favorite for hedge fund carry trades—often paired with the yen—due to Mexico’s relatively high interest rates and liquid FX market.

Beyond its appeal to speculators, the peso has also served as a key risk-on currency—often leading and participating alongside a broad base of international equities and commodities.

Following the election of Claudia Sheinbaum in June of 2024, the Mexican Peso and Mexican stocks took a hit, turning into laggards on the international stage. 

 

It was clear for those paying attention that the market did not feel optimistic about President Sheinbaum’s economic leadership. 

But the tides are shifting. With a weakening dollar, the Mexican Peso is finding its footing, and Mexican equities are starting to improve in a...