Today's trade is in a name that has been on my radar for a couple of weeks. I've been waiting for a trigger. And today, we're getting it.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended April 25, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolling ARKK into June options.
3. Closed XLP at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Yesterday, I was flat on my back, getting professionally stretched, my body creaking like an old door. It’s a bi-weekly ritual I lean into hard—it keeps me flexible, and helps me heal from years of grinding through life’s chaos. The woman working me over, a 24-year-old just starting her career, hit me with a question out of nowhere: “You’ve been around—what’ve you done to set yourself up financially that I should know?”

I laughed. A real, barking laugh.

“You’re asking me? You think I’ve got my shit together?” Her question caught me off guard, like a jab to the ribs. I’m no sage. My financial path looks more like a drunken stumble than a victory lap.

All I could give her at the moment was a half-assed list of regrets. “Here’s what I didn’t do,” I said, my voice trailing off. Don’t skip saving early, even if it’s just a few bucks a month. Don’t bet big on “sure thing” investments that crash and burn—I’ve got scars from those. Don’t let pride stop you from asking for help when you’re drowning...

It wasn’t the TED Talk she deserved. It felt like I was reading my failures out loud, each one a reminder...

The Fed doesn’t set the tone. It reacts to it.
 Always has. Always will.

This week, Waller gave the usual hint:
 "A serious drop in the job market could prompt more cuts, sooner."

Translation? The Fed knows it's behind. The bond market figured it out months ago.

The real story is written in the chart.
 The 2 Year Treasury Yield is the market’s forward looking Fed whisperer.
 Every cycle, the 2 year tops first. Every cycle, the Effective Federal Funds Rate follows like a lost puppy.

• When the 2 year peaks and rolls, the Fed has no choice but to cut.
• Markets aren’t asking politely for cuts — they’re already forcing them.

Right now, the  2 year is falling hard. That isn't a forecast.
 It’s the bond market screaming: "You're done here."

It’s not about what Powell...

 A tribute to ASC Gold Rush's standout setups

Great trades never ring a bell. They don’t come with fanfare. They come wrapped in uncertainty, quiet conviction, and a little discomfort. That’s how you know they matter.

Take Cocoa futures. One of the cleanest breakouts we’ve seen recently, but it didn’t feel clean until after it moved. 

Before that, it was all noise and indecision.

Here’s the setup we outlined in October 👇

We were betting that the breakdown to new lows wasn’t going to stick.

Why? The 14-day RSI was firmly in a bullish momentum regime. 

That’s a characteristic of an uptrend… Not a downtrend!

Moreover, this was a textbook consolidation after a historic 190% bull run which unfolded over 4 months.

Here’s how the setup unfolded 👇

The price ripped back above support and hit our target at the upper bound of the range in just a few weeks.

It was an epic bear trap…

Admittedly, this worked much better than we expected.

We...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Ricardo Sarraf, @nullcharts

The US dollar has been under increasing selling pressure all year, and just collapsed to its lowest level since April 2022.

When we look beneath the surface, the largest weightings in the DXY—namely the Euro, Yen, and Pound represent almost 83% of the index—and all three are threatening to break out of multi-year bases.

Analyzing the DXY in isolation is akin to evaluating the S&P 500 without considering market internals.

Due to the concentrated weightings in the index, DXY is always going to move in the opposite direction of these heavyweight currencies.

And right now, they are sending a very clear message about the dollar as they close in on textbook trend reversals.

The strength from these major currencies reinforces our...

After a historic rally fueled by Coffee and Cocoa, our Soft Commodity Index is finally hitting a major wall. 

With the price stalling at the 2011 highs and signs of distribution setting in, it’s time to shift our focus from chasing strength to hunting weakness. 

One commodity, in particular, is standing out on the downside, and it's giving us a sweet setup to take advantage of.

Let's talk about it...

Our Soft Commodity Index is an equal-weight basket of Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar.

It has increased in price by more than 150% over the last 5 years. This was primarily driven by historic uptrends in Coffee and Cocoa, which rallied 350% and 500%, respectively.

The complex was the home to some of the best trends in commodities for years.

Now, the...

During a recent Analyst meeting, it was discussed now that we're getting further confirmation that the lows may be in for the broader stock market, it's time to start shifting our attention to stocks that displayed strong relative strength in recent months.

The chart of Groupon $GRPN (remember them?) is exhibit A for relative strength as it's on the verge of printing new multi-year highs. And the team feels if this one goes, the stock could double. If it does, some strategically selected long calls could pay handsomely.

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list: