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The Short Report (01-21-2025)

January 21, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

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[Gold Rush] Why We're Buying These Breakouts 📈🐂

January 20, 2025

As precious metal investors, it's paramount to rotate between the metals themselves and mining companies to maximize our long-term gains.

The miners have historically treated shareholders poorly, but sometimes, it pays handsomely to own them.

Last week, we outlined a key level of interest in one of our favorite intermarket ratios. Based on this chart, we believe now is the time to buy the miners.

But it's not just the miners that've rewarded us for being long. The futures contracts are also trending higher, and we're looking to buy more on strength.

Gold futures resolved another continuation pattern last week:

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LOL Trump is Your President Again

January 20, 2025

Donald Trump gets inaugurated today as the next president of the United States.

This comes after a historic republican landslide that betting markets had absolutely correct going into the election.

Anyone who thought it was 4 guys in a room manipulating the markets were actually just hoping that was the case, because they didn't like what the betting markets were saying.

Tough shit.

You ignored the market and it cost you. 

Bitcoin is making new all-time highs this morning as the first Publicly Pro-Crypto President in history is about to take office.

You don't have to like the guy. In fact, you can hate Trump. Or love him. It doesn't matter when it comes to how we're going to profit from it.

And that's what this is all about.

If you let your politics influence your decision making in the market, you're an extremist. And there's no room for extremism in turning a profit.

Separate the two, or it will not end well. That I promise you.

And we've seen it over the last year.

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Under The Hood (01-20-2025)

January 20, 2025

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended January 3, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

under the hood logo, dark navy

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

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The Pretend Credit Crisis

January 20, 2025

This is a bull market for stocks. If you're not making money in this environment, then you should probably reevaluate your strategies. 

I know for a fact that I've witnessed individuals, who are clearly mentally ill, fight this historic rally pretending that there's some kind of epic credit crisis coming any day now (for over 2 years lol).

Whether it's fake breadth deterioration, or the "yen carry trade", or lies about Gold sending some kind of warning, or the Fed ruining everything, or small-caps underperforming, or Trump and his Magas. 

It's always something. 

These people will make up anything in their heads, no matter how outrageous, in order to justify poor decisions. Their egos are too fragile. 

Good.

It might be a little sad to have to watch them ruin their lives. But it's great for us who recognize their vulnerabilities and have chosen to just profit from it all instead.

You see, when I hear credit crisis, I naturally look at credit spreads to see what's going on.

The answer is: NOTHING.

Still nothing...

Credit spreads are as tight as they've been this entire bull market:

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📊 When Leaders Become Gamblers

January 20, 2025

From the shores of New Zealand, the political landscape of the United States unfolds like a peculiar theater production. Not the usual drama of left versus right, we've all seen enough of that, but rather a new kind of spectacle that blurs the lines between leadership, technology, and what can only be described as digital gambling.

Look, I'm not here to claim some kind of moral high ground from my corner of the South Pacific. New Zealand, for all its postcard perfection, grapples with its own demons: poor economic productivity, a culture of tall poppy syndrome, and mental health statistics that would make any policymaker wince. Every nation carries its own burden of imperfection.

But the United States? It has managed to craft something uniquely concerning in the intersection of power and profit.

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This Israeli Stock is Freshly Squeezed 🍊📈

January 19, 2025

Israel outperformed the United States stock market in 2024, and that trend has spilled over into 2025.

Camtek $CAMT is one of the hottest Israeli stocks, but the bears still hate it. 

The stock has a record-high 14% short interest and an 8x days-to-cover ratio. 

This extreme mispositioning is blowing up in the bears' faces as they've been freshly squeezed.

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(Commodities Weekly) Turning a Lump of Coal into a Diamond: Why We're Buying Coal Stocks 📈💎

January 17, 2025

The coal industry is one of the most under-the-radar ponds to fish in.

Investors write it off because "clean energy" will displace the industry. While this is likely true, we think it will take far longer than most expect. 

In the meantime, this extreme mispositioning is our opportunity to profit.

You would have made a fortune if you bought these stocks at the depths of the COVID crash. Far more than if you purchased the hottest "work from home" stock.

These stocks had their best day in years last summer after a major Australian coal mine caught fire and halted production. 

While we haven't seen the upside follow-through we anticipated, the setup looks ripe for the bulls to take control.

Let's dive into the charts.