I’ve been pounding the table on Brazil lately.

I can’t remember a time in my career when I thought about these stocks so much.

One of the first things I do every morning is check the BRL/USD pair and Bovespa.

That tells me all I need to know about how my Brazilian ADRs are trending. I’ve built positions in a number of them just recently.

Some are doing well, others like PBR and VALE, not so much.

But, here’s the thing. Investors are dumping their USD exposure and looking around the globe for new opportunities.

I think this has a lot less to do with trade war narratives and rumors, and a lot more to do with the fact that the US has dominated the investment world for a decade and a half.

America has been the only game in town for anyone looking to generate alpha. 

Of course, it couldn’t last forever. 

Stocks around the world are dirt cheap compared to the premium multiples found here.

For example, my two favorite Brazilian ADRs are trading at single-digit P/E multiples right now. 

...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. Adding new position in XLV.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Gold miners keep squeezing higher.

Why the short sellers are betting against this uptrend is beyond us.

As the great market analyst, Charlie Munger said:

"If people weren't so often wrong, we wouldn't be so rich."

Thank you, short sellers... We love you!

With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."

We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.

I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.

How could it?

When D.C. can’t get its act together, Wall Street feels it.

I’ve seen it happen more times than I care to count: confusion out of the White House sets off a chain reaction that ripples all the way down to public company earnings—and right into your portfolio.

It starts with poor policy direction or, worse, unclear communication. When nobody really knows what the administration’s long-term plan is (or if there even is one), businesses get stuck. It’s not just annoying for executives—it’s paralyzing. You can’t confidently launch a new product line, expand into new regions, or hire that next wave of talent if you don’t know whether the...

With a slew of important earnings coming up over the next few weeks, we're going to start getting a real sense of the negative impacts of the f-d up policy communication strategy out of "The Administration."

We're going to see more dialed back forward guidance, and meaningful impacts to bottom lines.

I think Amazon might soon find itself at the front lines of this discussion. Their earnings release, scheduled for May 1st, may kickstart that conversation. And I don't think it goes well.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

Nowadays, to make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. Adding new position in TLT.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

There's so much happening in the commodities markets right now. 

Orange Juice futures just ripped 50% in several days and triggered our buy signal.

Crude Oil futures have resolved a textbook multi-year distribution pattern and triggered our sell signal.

To name a few...

We're also on the cusp of getting a fresh buy signal in Soybean Oil futures.

"Big Oil" wants more renewable diesel - from 3.3 to over 5 billion gallons.

If that's the case, demand will skyrocket for grains across the board.

The first week of 2025 was the largest 1-week rate of change since 1983 for Soybean Oil futures.

We love to call the beginning of each year "whipsaw hunting season."

This is where trends that are overextended, in either direction, tend to...